Ryan Fitzgerald

K Carolina Panthers · Wk 3 @ CLE CLE

Chance of 2+ field goals

52%

Rank

#12

of 32

Why Fitzgerald ranks #12

Ryan Fitzgerald has reached 2+ field goals in 1 of 2 games this season.
Fitzgerald has 3 field goals in 2 games (1.50 per game) on 1.5 attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical K at this workload produces (1.25 per game), giving 1.35 per game.
The Browns have allowed 3.00 field goals per game to Ks over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.63 (+84%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.28 adjustment.
Game environment (field goals x1.00): Vegas total 42.5, implied 22.8 points for CAR (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (70F, 4 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected field goals this week: 1.74. That makes the chance of 2+ field goals 52%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to Ks divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 1.74, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every K the Browns faced in each game, not just one player.