Trey Smack

K Green Bay Packers · Wk 3 vs ATL ATL

Chance of 2+ field goals

71%

Rank

of 32

Why Smack ranks #3

Trey Smack has reached 2+ field goals in 2 of 2 games this season.
Smack has 5 field goals in 2 games (2.50 per game) on 2.5 attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical K at this workload produces (2.09 per game), giving 2.25 per game.
The Falcons have allowed 2.00 field goals per game to Ks over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.63 (+23%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.08 adjustment.
Game environment (field goals x1.04): Vegas total 43.5, implied 25.3 points for GB (league avg 22.5); Favored by 7: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (57F, 5 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected field goals this week: 2.51. That makes the chance of 2+ field goals 71%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to Ks divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 2.51, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every K the Falcons faced in each game, not just one player.