Jared Goff

QB Detroit Lions · Wk 3 vs NYJ NYJ

Chance of 2+ passing TDs

73%

Rank

of 34

Why Goff ranks #3

Jared Goff has reached 2+ passing TDs in 2 of 2 games this season.
Goff has 6 passing TDs in 2 games (3.00 per game) on 38.5 pass attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical QB at this workload produces (1.92 per game), giving 2.35 per game.
The Jets have allowed 1.50 passing TDs per game to QBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.56 (-4%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.99 adjustment.
Game environment (passing TDs x1.11): Vegas total 48.5, implied 27.5 points for DET (league avg 22.5); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected passing TDs this week: 2.58. That makes the chance of 2+ passing TDs 73%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to QBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 2.58, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every QB the Jets faced in each game, not just one player.