Lamar Jackson

QB Baltimore Ravens · Wk 3 @ DAL DAL

Chance of 2+ passing TDs

50%

Rank

#14

of 34

Why Jackson ranks #14

Lamar Jackson has reached 2+ passing TDs in 0 of 2 games this season.
Jackson has 2 passing TDs in 2 games (1.00 per game) on 28.0 pass attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical QB at this workload produces (1.39 per game), giving 1.24 per game.
The Cowboys have allowed 2.50 passing TDs per game to QBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.56 (+60%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.20 adjustment.
Game environment (passing TDs x1.13): Vegas total 52.5, implied 27.8 points for BAL (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected passing TDs this week: 1.68. That makes the chance of 2+ passing TDs 50%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to QBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 1.68, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every QB the Cowboys faced in each game, not just one player.