‹ Passing touchdowns
Jordan Love
QB Green Bay Packers · Wk 3 vs 
ATL
Chance of 2+ passing TDs
63%Rank
#7
of 34
Why Love ranks #7
- Jordan Love has reached 2+ passing TDs in 2 of 2 games this season.
- Love has 4 passing TDs in 2 games (2.00 per game) on 35.5 pass attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical QB at this workload produces (1.77 per game), giving 1.86 per game.
- The Falcons have allowed 2.00 passing TDs per game to QBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.56 (+28%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.09 adjustment.
- Game environment (passing TDs x1.03): Vegas total 43.5, implied 25.3 points for GB (league avg 22.5); Favored by 7: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (57F, 5 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Expected passing TDs this week: 2.13. That makes the chance of 2+ passing TDs 63%.
- Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.
How the math works
Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.
Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to QBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.
Chance: expected 2.13, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.
It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.
Jordan Love's games
| Wk | Opp | Att | PaYd | PaTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 42 | 387 | 2 |
| 2 | NYJ | 29 | 145 | 2 |
| Average | 35.5 | 266.0 | 2.0 | |
What the Falcons allow to QBs
| Wk | Offense | PaTD |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | 1 |
| 2 |  CAR | 3 |
| Falcons avg / game | 2.00 | |
| League avg | 1.56 | |
Totals are for every QB the Falcons faced in each game, not just one player.