Jalen Hurts

QB Philadelphia Eagles · Wk 3 @ CHI CHI

Chance of 2+ passing TDs

58%

Rank

#12

of 34

Why Hurts ranks #12

Jalen Hurts has reached 2+ passing TDs in 2 of 2 games this season.
Hurts has 5 passing TDs in 2 games (2.50 per game) on 31.0 pass attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical QB at this workload produces (1.54 per game), giving 1.93 per game.
The Bears have allowed 1.50 passing TDs per game to QBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.56 (-4%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.99 adjustment.
Game environment (passing TDs x1.02): Vegas total 44.5, implied 24.0 points for PHI (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3.5: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (66F, 6 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected passing TDs this week: 1.96. That makes the chance of 2+ passing TDs 58%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to QBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 1.96, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every QB the Bears faced in each game, not just one player.