C.J. Stroud

QB Houston Texans · Wk 3 @ IND IND

Chance of 2+ passing TDs

61%

Rank

#11

of 34

Why Stroud ranks #11

C.J. Stroud has reached 2+ passing TDs in 1 of 2 games this season.
Stroud has 2 passing TDs in 2 games (1.00 per game) on 46.5 pass attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical QB at this workload produces (2.32 per game), giving 1.79 per game.
The Colts have allowed 2.00 passing TDs per game to QBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.56 (+28%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.09 adjustment.
Game environment (passing TDs x1.04): Vegas total 43.5, implied 23.0 points for HOU (league avg 22.5); Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected passing TDs this week: 2.06. That makes the chance of 2+ passing TDs 61%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to QBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 2.06, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every QB the Colts faced in each game, not just one player.