‹ Passing touchdowns
Jaxson Dart
QB New York Giants · Wk 2 @ 
LA
Chance of 2+ passing TDs
66%Rank
#5
of 34
Why Dart ranks #5
- Jaxson Dart has reached 2+ passing TDs in 1 of 1 game this season.
- Dart has 3 passing TDs in 1 game (3.00 per game) on 29.0 pass attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical QB at this workload produces (1.44 per game), giving 1.83 per game.
- The Rams have allowed 3.00 passing TDs per game to QBs over 1 game, versus a league average of 1.56 (+92%). Only 20% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.18 adjustment.
- Game environment (passing TDs x1.02): Vegas total 47.5, implied 20.5 points for NYG (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 6.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Expected passing TDs this week: 2.25. That makes the chance of 2+ passing TDs 66%.
- Small sample: only 1 game so far, so treat this as directional.
How the math works
Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.
Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to QBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.
Chance: expected 2.25, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.
It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.
Jaxson Dart's games
| Wk | Opp | Att | PaYd | PaTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 29 | 230 | 3 |
| Average | 29.0 | 230.0 | 3.0 | |
What the Rams allow to QBs
| Wk | Offense | PaTD |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | 3 |
| Rams avg / game | 3.00 | |
| League avg | 1.56 | |
Totals are for every QB the Rams faced in each game, not just one player.