Travis Kelce

TE Kansas City Chiefs · Wk 3 @ MIA MIA

Chance of 5+ receptions

77%

Rank

#12

of 158

Why Kelce ranks #12

Travis Kelce has reached 5+ receptions in 1 of 2 games this season.
Kelce has 12 receptions in 2 games (6.00 per game) on 8.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical TE at this workload produces (5.97 per game), giving 5.98 per game.
The Dolphins have allowed 5.00 receptions per game to TEs over 2 games, versus a league average of 4.92 (+2%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.01 adjustment.
Game environment (receptions x1.07): Vegas total 45.5, implied 28.5 points for KC (league avg 22.5); Favored by 11.5: leaning run-heavy late; Rain likely (0.7 mm, 49% chance): teams run more, fewer big passes.
Expected receptions this week: 6.46. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 77%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to TEs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 6.46, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every TE the Dolphins faced in each game, not just one player.