Dalton Schultz

TE Houston Texans · Wk 3 @ IND IND

Chance of 5+ receptions

97%

Rank

of 158

Why Schultz ranks #1

Dalton Schultz has reached 5+ receptions in 1 of 2 games this season.
Schultz has 16 receptions in 2 games (8.00 per game) on 11.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical TE at this workload produces (8.20 per game), giving 8.10 per game.
The Colts have allowed 7.50 receptions per game to TEs over 2 games, versus a league average of 4.92 (+52%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.21 adjustment.
Game environment (receptions x1.03): Vegas total 43.5, implied 23.3 points for HOU (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected receptions this week: 10.27. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 97%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to TEs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 10.27, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every TE the Colts faced in each game, not just one player.