CeeDee Lamb

WR Dallas Cowboys · Wk 3 vs BAL BAL

Chance of 5+ receptions

83%

Rank

of 158

Why Lamb ranks #8

CeeDee Lamb has reached 5+ receptions in 2 of 2 games this season.
Lamb has 13 receptions in 2 games (6.50 per game) on 8.5 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (5.41 per game), giving 5.96 per game.
The Ravens have allowed 13.50 receptions per game to WRs over 2 games, versus a league average of 11.19 (+21%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.08 adjustment.
Game environment (receptions x1.09): Vegas total 52.5, implied 24.8 points for DAL (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected receptions this week: 7.05. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 83%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to WRs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 7.05, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every WR the Ravens faced in each game, not just one player.