‹ Receptions
Nico Collins
WR Houston Texans · Wk 3 @ 
IND
Chance of 5+ receptions
84%Rank
#7
of 158
Why Collins ranks #7
- Nico Collins has reached 5+ receptions in 1 of 1 game this season.
- Collins has 7 receptions in 1 game (7.00 per game) on 10.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (6.37 per game), giving 6.58 per game.
- The Colts have allowed 12.00 receptions per game to WRs over 2 games, versus a league average of 11.19 (+7%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.03 adjustment.
- Game environment (receptions x1.04): Vegas total 43.5, implied 23.0 points for HOU (league avg 22.5); Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Expected receptions this week: 7.14. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 84%.
- Small sample: only 1 game so far, so treat this as directional.
How the math works
Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.
Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to WRs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.
Chance: expected 7.14, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.
It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.
Nico Collins's games
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 10 | 7 | 75 |
| Average | 10.0 | 7.0 | 75.0 | |
What the Colts allow to WRs
| Wk | Offense | Rec |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | 9 |
| 2 |  KC | 15 |
| Colts avg / game | 12.00 | |
| League avg | 11.19 | |
Totals are for every WR the Colts faced in each game, not just one player.