‹ Receptions
Pat Freiermuth
TE Pittsburgh Steelers · Wk 3 vs 
CIN
Chance of 5+ receptions
57%Rank
#28
of 158
Why Freiermuth ranks #28
- Pat Freiermuth has reached 5+ receptions in 1 of 2 games this season.
- Freiermuth has 9 receptions in 2 games (4.50 per game) on 5.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical TE at this workload produces (3.73 per game), giving 4.11 per game.
- The Bengals have allowed 8.50 receptions per game to TEs over 2 games, versus a league average of 4.92 (+73%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.29 adjustment.
- Game environment (receptions x0.95): Vegas total 42.5, implied 19.5 points for PIT (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 3.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (71F, 0 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Expected receptions this week: 5.05. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 57%.
- Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.
How the math works
Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.
Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to TEs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.
Chance: expected 5.05, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.
It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.
Pat Freiermuth's games
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 5 | 5 | 46 |
| 2 | NE | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| Average | 5.0 | 4.5 | 39.0 | |
What the Bengals allow to TEs
| Wk | Offense | Rec |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TB | 3 |
| 2 |  HOU | 14 |
| Bengals avg / game | 8.50 | |
| League avg | 4.92 | |
Totals are for every TE the Bengals faced in each game, not just one player.