DeVonta Smith

WR Philadelphia Eagles · Wk 3 @ CHI CHI

Chance of 5+ receptions

71%

Rank

#17

of 158

Why Smith ranks #17

DeVonta Smith has reached 5+ receptions in 1 of 2 games this season.
Smith has 13 receptions in 2 games (6.50 per game) on 9.5 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (6.05 per game), giving 6.27 per game.
The Bears have allowed 9.00 receptions per game to WRs over 2 games, versus a league average of 11.19 (-20%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.92 adjustment.
Game environment (receptions x1.02): Vegas total 44.5, implied 24.0 points for PHI (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3.5: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (66F, 6 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected receptions this week: 5.97. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 71%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to WRs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 5.97, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every WR the Bears faced in each game, not just one player.