Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR Detroit Lions · Wk 3 vs NYJ NYJ

Chance of 5+ receptions

97%

Rank

of 158

Why Brown ranks #2

Amon-Ra St. Brown has reached 5+ receptions in 2 of 2 games this season.
Brown has 19 receptions in 2 games (9.50 per game) on 13.5 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (8.60 per game), giving 9.05 per game.
The Jets have allowed 11.00 receptions per game to WRs over 2 games, versus a league average of 11.19 (-2%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.99 adjustment.
Game environment (receptions x1.11): Vegas total 48.5, implied 27.5 points for DET (league avg 22.5); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected receptions this week: 10.01. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 97%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to WRs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 10.01, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every WR the Jets faced in each game, not just one player.