Chris Olave

WR New Orleans Saints · Wk 3 vs LV

Chance of 5+ receptions

86%

Rank

of 158

Why Olave ranks #4

Chris Olave has reached 5+ receptions in 2 of 2 games this season.
Olave has 18 receptions in 2 games (9.00 per game) on 11.5 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (7.32 per game), giving 8.16 per game.
The Raiders have allowed 7.50 receptions per game to WRs over 2 games, versus a league average of 11.19 (-33%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.87 adjustment.
Game environment (receptions x1.03): Vegas total 43.5, implied 23.3 points for NO (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected receptions this week: 7.38. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 86%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to WRs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 7.38, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every WR the Raiders faced in each game, not just one player.