Trey McBride

TE Arizona Cardinals · Wk 3 @ SF

Chance of 5+ receptions

86%

Rank

of 158

Why McBride ranks #6

Trey McBride has reached 5+ receptions in 2 of 2 games this season.
McBride has 17 receptions in 2 games (8.50 per game) on 11.5 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical TE at this workload produces (8.58 per game), giving 8.54 per game.
The 49ers have allowed 3.50 receptions per game to TEs over 2 games, versus a league average of 4.92 (-29%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.88 adjustment.
Game environment (receptions x0.97): Vegas total 47.5, implied 19.5 points for ARI (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 8.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Wind about 12 mph: hurts passing and kicking.
Expected receptions this week: 7.35. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 86%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to TEs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 7.35, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every TE the 49ers faced in each game, not just one player.