‹ Receptions
Isaiah Likely
TE New York Giants · Wk 2 @ 
LA
Chance of 5+ receptions
78%Rank
#10
of 158
Why Likely ranks #10
- Isaiah Likely has reached 5+ receptions in 1 of 1 game this season.
- Likely has 8 receptions in 1 game (8.00 per game) on 8.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical TE at this workload produces (5.97 per game), giving 6.64 per game.
- The Rams have allowed 4.00 receptions per game to TEs over 1 game, versus a league average of 4.92 (-19%). Only 25% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.95 adjustment.
- Game environment (receptions x1.02): Vegas total 47.5, implied 20.5 points for NYG (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 6.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Expected receptions this week: 6.57. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 78%.
- Small sample: only 1 game so far, so treat this as directional.
How the math works
Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.
Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to TEs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.
Chance: expected 6.57, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.
It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.
Isaiah Likely's games
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 8 | 8 | 78 |
| Average | 8.0 | 8.0 | 78.0 | |
What the Rams allow to TEs
| Wk | Offense | Rec |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | 4 |
| Rams avg / game | 4.00 | |
| League avg | 4.92 | |
Totals are for every TE the Rams faced in each game, not just one player.