Kenneth Walker III

RB Kansas City Chiefs · Wk 3 @ MIA MIA

Chance of 5+ receptions

74%

Rank

#15

of 158

Why Walker ranks #15

Kenneth Walker III has reached 5+ receptions in 1 of 2 games this season.
Walker has 9 receptions in 2 games (4.50 per game) on 8.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (6.40 per game), giving 5.45 per game.
The Dolphins have allowed 5.00 receptions per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 4.39 (+14%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.06 adjustment.
Game environment (receptions x1.07): Vegas total 45.5, implied 28.5 points for KC (league avg 22.5); Favored by 11.5: leaning run-heavy late; Rain likely (0.7 mm, 49% chance): teams run more, fewer big passes.
Expected receptions this week: 6.17. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 74%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 6.17, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every RB the Dolphins faced in each game, not just one player.