Dalton Kincaid

TE Buffalo Bills · Wk 3 vs LAC LAC

Chance of 5+ receptions

86%

Rank

of 158

Why Kincaid ranks #5

Dalton Kincaid has reached 5+ receptions in 2 of 2 games this season.
Kincaid has 12 receptions in 2 games (6.00 per game) on 7.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical TE at this workload produces (5.22 per game), giving 5.61 per game.
The Chargers have allowed 6.50 receptions per game to TEs over 2 games, versus a league average of 4.92 (+32%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.13 adjustment.
Game environment (receptions x1.11): Vegas total 50.5, implied 28.8 points for BUF (league avg 22.5); Favored by 7: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (73F, 3 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected receptions this week: 7.37. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 86%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to TEs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 7.37, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every TE the Chargers faced in each game, not just one player.