‹ Receptions
Puka Nacua
WR Los Angeles Rams · Wk 2 vs 
NYG
Chance of 5+ receptions
77%Rank
#11
of 158
Why Nacua ranks #11
- Puka Nacua has reached 5+ receptions in 1 of 1 game this season.
- Nacua has 5 receptions in 1 game (5.00 per game) on 9.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (5.73 per game), giving 5.49 per game.
- The Giants have allowed 12.00 receptions per game to WRs over 1 game, versus a league average of 11.19 (+7%). Only 25% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.02 adjustment.
- Game environment (receptions x1.10): Vegas total 47.5, implied 27.0 points for LA (league avg 22.5); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Expected receptions this week: 6.46. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 77%.
- Small sample: only 1 game so far, so treat this as directional.
How the math works
Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.
Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to WRs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.
Chance: expected 6.46, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.
It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.
Puka Nacua's games
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 9 | 5 | 74 |
| Average | 9.0 | 5.0 | 74.0 | |
What the Giants allow to WRs
| Wk | Offense | Rec |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DAL | 12 |
| Giants avg / game | 12.00 | |
| League avg | 11.19 | |
Totals are for every WR the Giants faced in each game, not just one player.