Malik Nabers

WR New York Giants · Wk 2 @ LA

Chance of 5+ receptions

77%

Rank

#13

of 158

Why Nabers ranks #13

Malik Nabers has reached 5+ receptions in 1 of 1 game this season.
Nabers has 6 receptions in 1 game (6.00 per game) on 9.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (5.73 per game), giving 5.82 per game.
The Rams have allowed 14.00 receptions per game to WRs over 1 game, versus a league average of 11.19 (+25%). Only 25% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.06 adjustment.
Game environment (receptions x1.02): Vegas total 47.5, implied 20.5 points for NYG (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 6.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected receptions this week: 6.42. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 77%.
Small sample: only 1 game so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to WRs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 6.42, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	ReYd
1	DAL	9	6	69
Average		9.0	6.0	69.0

Totals are for every WR the Rams faced in each game, not just one player.