Jalen Coker

WR Carolina Panthers · Wk 3 @ CLE CLE

Chance of 5+ receptions

79%

Rank

of 158

Why Coker ranks #9

Jalen Coker has reached 5+ receptions in 2 of 2 games this season.
Coker has 16 receptions in 2 games (8.00 per game) on 9.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (5.73 per game), giving 6.87 per game.
The Browns have allowed 10.50 receptions per game to WRs over 2 games, versus a league average of 11.19 (-6%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.98 adjustment.
Game environment (receptions x0.99): Vegas total 42.5, implied 22.8 points for CAR (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (70F, 4 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected receptions this week: 6.65. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 79%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to WRs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 6.65, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every WR the Browns faced in each game, not just one player.