Christian McCaffrey

RB San Francisco 49ers · Wk 3 vs ARI ARI

Chance of 1+ rushing TD

46%

Rank

#10

of 89

Why McCaffrey ranks #10

Christian McCaffrey has reached 1+ rushing TD in 1 of 2 games this season.
McCaffrey has 2 rushing TDs in 2 games (1.00 per game) on 10.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.28 per game), giving 0.57 per game.
The Cardinals have allowed 0.50 rushing TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.63 (-21%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.93 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x1.15): Vegas total 47.5, implied 28.0 points for SF (league avg 22.5); Favored by 8.5: leaning run-heavy late; Wind about 12 mph: hurts passing and kicking.
Expected rushing TDs this week: 0.61. That makes the chance of 1+ rushing TD 46%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.61, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every RB the Cardinals faced in each game, not just one player.