Josh Allen

QB Buffalo Bills · Wk 3 vs LAC LAC

Chance of 1+ rushing TD

60%

Rank

of 89

Why Allen ranks #2

Josh Allen has reached 1+ rushing TD in 2 of 2 games this season.
Allen has 4 rushing TDs in 2 games (2.00 per game) on 10.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical QB at this workload produces (0.56 per game), giving 1.13 per game.
The Chargers have allowed 0.00 rushing TDs per game to QBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.24 (-100%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.70 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x1.15): Vegas total 50.5, implied 28.8 points for BUF (league avg 22.5); Favored by 7: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (73F, 3 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected rushing TDs this week: 0.93. That makes the chance of 1+ rushing TD 60%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to QBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.93, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every QB the Chargers faced in each game, not just one player.