Jonathan Taylor

RB Indianapolis Colts · Wk 3 vs HOU HOU

Chance of 1+ rushing TD

55%

Rank

of 89

Why Taylor ranks #7

Jonathan Taylor has reached 1+ rushing TD in 2 of 2 games this season.
Taylor has 4 rushing TDs in 2 games (2.00 per game) on 21.5 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.61 per game), giving 1.17 per game.
The Texans have allowed 0.00 rushing TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.63 (-100%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.70 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x0.96): Vegas total 43.5, implied 20.5 points for IND (league avg 22.5); Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected rushing TDs this week: 0.80. That makes the chance of 1+ rushing TD 55%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.80, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every RB the Texans faced in each game, not just one player.