D'Andre Swift

RB Chicago Bears · Wk 3 vs PHI PHI

Chance of 1+ rushing TD

55%

Rank

of 89

Why Swift ranks #8

D'Andre Swift has reached 1+ rushing TD in 1 of 2 games this season.
Swift has 3 rushing TDs in 2 games (1.50 per game) on 17.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.48 per game), giving 0.89 per game.
The Eagles have allowed 0.50 rushing TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.63 (-21%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.93 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x0.95): Vegas total 44.5, implied 20.5 points for CHI (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 3.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (66F, 6 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected rushing TDs this week: 0.79. That makes the chance of 1+ rushing TD 55%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.79, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every RB the Eagles faced in each game, not just one player.