Kyren Williams

RB Los Angeles Rams · Wk 2 vs NYG NYG

Chance of 1+ rushing TD

45%

Rank

#11

of 89

Why Williams ranks #11

Kyren Williams has reached 1+ rushing TD in 1 of 1 game this season.
Williams has 1 rushing TDs in 1 game (1.00 per game) on 11.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.31 per game), giving 0.49 per game.
The Giants have allowed 1.00 rushing TDs per game to RBs over 1 game, versus a league average of 0.63 (+59%). Only 20% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.12 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x1.12): Vegas total 47.5, implied 27.0 points for LA (league avg 22.5); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected rushing TDs this week: 0.61. That makes the chance of 1+ rushing TD 45%.
Small sample: only 1 game so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.61, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Opp	Car	RuYd	RuTD
1	SF	11	41	1
Average		11.0	41.0	1.0

Totals are for every RB the Giants faced in each game, not just one player.