Jahmyr Gibbs

RB Detroit Lions · Wk 3 vs NYJ NYJ

Chance of 1+ rushing TD

46%

Rank

of 89

Why Gibbs ranks #9

Jahmyr Gibbs has reached 1+ rushing TD in 1 of 2 games this season.
Gibbs has 2 rushing TDs in 2 games (1.00 per game) on 22.5 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.64 per game), giving 0.78 per game.
The Jets have allowed 0.00 rushing TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.63 (-100%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.70 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x1.13): Vegas total 48.5, implied 27.5 points for DET (league avg 22.5); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected rushing TDs this week: 0.62. That makes the chance of 1+ rushing TD 46%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.62, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every RB the Jets faced in each game, not just one player.