TreVeyon Henderson

RB New England Patriots · Wk 3 @ JAX JAX

Chance of 1+ rushing TD

42%

Rank

#15

of 89

Why Henderson ranks #15

TreVeyon Henderson has reached 1+ rushing TD in 1 of 1 game this season.
Henderson has 1 rushing TDs in 1 game (1.00 per game) on 16.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.46 per game), giving 0.59 per game.
The Jaguars have allowed 0.50 rushing TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.63 (-21%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.93 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x0.97): Vegas total 45.5, implied 21.3 points for NE (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (86F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected rushing TDs this week: 0.54. That makes the chance of 1+ rushing TD 42%.
Small sample: only 1 game so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.54, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Opp	Car	RuYd	RuTD
2	PIT	16	76	1
Average		16.0	76.0	1.0

Totals are for every RB the Jaguars faced in each game, not just one player.