Tyler Shough

QB New Orleans Saints · Wk 3 vs LV

Chance of 1+ rushing TD

44%

Rank

#13

of 89

Why Shough ranks #13

Tyler Shough has reached 1+ rushing TD in 1 of 2 games this season.
Shough has 1 rushing TDs in 2 games (0.50 per game) on 6.5 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical QB at this workload produces (0.36 per game), giving 0.42 per game.
The Raiders have allowed 0.50 rushing TDs per game to QBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.24 (+107%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.36 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x1.03): Vegas total 43.5, implied 23.3 points for NO (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected rushing TDs this week: 0.58. That makes the chance of 1+ rushing TD 44%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to QBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.58, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every QB the Raiders faced in each game, not just one player.