Derrick Henry

RB Baltimore Ravens · Wk 3 @ DAL DAL

Chance of 70+ rushing yds

70%

Rank

of 52

Why Henry ranks #2

Derrick Henry has reached 70+ rushing yds in 1 of 2 games this season.
Henry has 212 rushing yards in 2 games (106.00 per game) on 20.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (82.35 per game), giving 94.18 per game.
The Cowboys have allowed 110.50 rushing yards per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 90.92 (+22%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.09 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing yards x1.11): Vegas total 52.5, implied 27.8 points for BAL (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected rushing yards this week: 113.58. That makes the chance of 70+ rushing yds 70%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 113.58, spread by about 68.2 yards per game, then the chance of reaching 70+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	Car	RuYd
1	NYG	26	111
2	WAS	24	110
Cowboys avg / game		25.00	110.50
League avg		22.08	90.92

Totals are for every RB the Cowboys faced in each game, not just one player.