Aaron Jones

RB Minnesota Vikings · Wk 3 @ TB

Chance of 70+ rushing yds

31%

Rank

#14

of 52

Why Jones ranks #14

Aaron Jones has reached 70+ rushing yds in 1 of 2 games this season.
Jones has 145 rushing yards in 2 games (72.50 per game) on 17.5 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (72.06 per game), giving 72.28 per game.
The Buccaneers have allowed 52.00 rushing yards per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 90.92 (-43%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.83 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing yards x0.99): Vegas total 42.5, implied 22.0 points for MIN (league avg 22.5); Mild weather (87F, 7 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected rushing yards this week: 59.33. That makes the chance of 70+ rushing yds 31%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 59.33, spread by about 35.6 yards per game, then the chance of reaching 70+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	Car	RuYd
1	CIN	21	76
2	CLE	15	28
Buccaneers avg / game		18.00	52.00
League avg		22.08	90.92

Totals are for every RB the Buccaneers faced in each game, not just one player.