Jonathan Taylor

RB Indianapolis Colts · Wk 3 vs HOU HOU

Chance of 70+ rushing yds

53%

Rank

of 52

Why Taylor ranks #6

Jonathan Taylor has reached 70+ rushing yds in 2 of 2 games this season.
Taylor has 190 rushing yards in 2 games (95.00 per game) on 21.5 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (88.53 per game), giving 91.76 per game.
The Texans have allowed 74.50 rushing yards per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 90.92 (-18%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.93 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing yards x0.96): Vegas total 43.5, implied 20.5 points for IND (league avg 22.5); Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected rushing yards this week: 83.69. That makes the chance of 70+ rushing yds 53%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 83.69, spread by about 50.2 yards per game, then the chance of reaching 70+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	Car	RuYd
1	BUF	15	63
2	CIN	22	86
Texans avg / game		18.50	74.50
League avg		22.08	90.92

Totals are for every RB the Texans faced in each game, not just one player.