D'Andre Swift

RB Chicago Bears · Wk 3 vs PHI PHI

Chance of 70+ rushing yds

50%

Rank

of 52

Why Swift ranks #9

D'Andre Swift has reached 70+ rushing yds in 1 of 2 games this season.
Swift has 169 rushing yards in 2 games (84.50 per game) on 17.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (70.00 per game), giving 77.25 per game.
The Eagles have allowed 108.00 rushing yards per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 90.92 (+19%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.08 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing yards x0.95): Vegas total 44.5, implied 20.5 points for CHI (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 3.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (66F, 6 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected rushing yards this week: 78.88. That makes the chance of 70+ rushing yds 50%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 78.88, spread by about 47.3 yards per game, then the chance of reaching 70+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	Car	RuYd
1	WAS	27	101
2	TEN	25	115
Eagles avg / game		26.00	108.00
League avg		22.08	90.92

Totals are for every RB the Eagles faced in each game, not just one player.