James Cook

RB Buffalo Bills · Wk 3 vs LAC LAC

Chance of 70+ rushing yds

59%

Rank

of 52

Why Cook ranks #4

James Cook has reached 70+ rushing yds in 1 of 2 games this season.
Cook has 192 rushing yards in 2 games (96.00 per game) on 17.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (70.00 per game), giving 83.00 per game.
The Chargers have allowed 78.50 rushing yards per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 90.92 (-14%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.95 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing yards x1.15): Vegas total 50.5, implied 28.8 points for BUF (league avg 22.5); Favored by 7: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (73F, 3 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected rushing yards this week: 91.49. That makes the chance of 70+ rushing yds 59%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 91.49, spread by about 54.9 yards per game, then the chance of reaching 70+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	Car	RuYd
1	ARI	28	102
2	LV	24	55
Chargers avg / game		26.00	78.50
League avg		22.08	90.92

Totals are for every RB the Chargers faced in each game, not just one player.