Breece Hall

RB New York Jets · Wk 3 @ DET DET

Chance of 70+ rushing yds

45%

Rank

#10

of 52

Why Hall ranks #10

Breece Hall has reached 70+ rushing yds in 1 of 2 games this season.
Hall has 131 rushing yards in 2 games (65.50 per game) on 19.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (78.23 per game), giving 71.87 per game.
The Lions have allowed 107.50 rushing yards per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 90.92 (+18%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.07 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing yards x0.95): Vegas total 48.5, implied 21.0 points for NYJ (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 6.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected rushing yards this week: 73.36. That makes the chance of 70+ rushing yds 45%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 73.36, spread by about 44.0 yards per game, then the chance of reaching 70+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	Car	RuYd
1	NO	20	80
2	BUF	21	135
Lions avg / game		20.50	107.50
League avg		22.08	90.92

Totals are for every RB the Lions faced in each game, not just one player.