Kenneth Walker III

RB Kansas City Chiefs · Wk 3 @ MIA MIA

Chance of 70+ rushing yds

82%

Rank

of 52

Why Walker ranks #1

Kenneth Walker III has reached 70+ rushing yds in 2 of 2 games this season.
Walker has 290 rushing yards in 2 games (145.00 per game) on 23.5 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (96.76 per game), giving 120.88 per game.
The Dolphins have allowed 103.00 rushing yards per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 90.92 (+13%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.05 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing yards x1.19): Vegas total 45.5, implied 28.5 points for KC (league avg 22.5); Favored by 11.5: leaning run-heavy late; Rain likely (0.7 mm, 49% chance): teams run more, fewer big passes.
Expected rushing yards this week: 150.98. That makes the chance of 70+ rushing yds 82%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 150.98, spread by about 90.6 yards per game, then the chance of reaching 70+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	Car	RuYd
1	LV	30	143
2	SF	21	63
Dolphins avg / game		25.50	103.00
League avg		22.08	90.92

Totals are for every RB the Dolphins faced in each game, not just one player.