Bijan Robinson

RB Atlanta Falcons · Wk 3 @ GB

Chance of 70+ rushing yds

34%

Rank

#13

of 52

Why Robinson ranks #13

Bijan Robinson has reached 70+ rushing yds in 2 of 2 games this season.
Robinson has 155 rushing yards in 2 games (77.50 per game) on 18.5 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (76.18 per game), giving 76.84 per game.
The Packers have allowed 67.50 rushing yards per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 90.92 (-26%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.90 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing yards x0.90): Vegas total 43.5, implied 18.3 points for ATL (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 7: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (57F, 5 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected rushing yards this week: 61.74. That makes the chance of 70+ rushing yds 34%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 61.74, spread by about 37.0 yards per game, then the chance of reaching 70+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	Car	RuYd
1	MIN	27	99
2	NYJ	21	36
Packers avg / game		24.00	67.50
League avg		22.08	90.92

Totals are for every RB the Packers faced in each game, not just one player.