Jahmyr Gibbs

RB Detroit Lions · Wk 3 vs NYJ NYJ

Chance of 70+ rushing yds

60%

Rank

of 52

Why Gibbs ranks #3

Jahmyr Gibbs has reached 70+ rushing yds in 1 of 2 games this season.
Gibbs has 208 rushing yards in 2 games (104.00 per game) on 22.5 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (92.65 per game), giving 98.32 per game.
The Jets have allowed 55.00 rushing yards per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 90.92 (-40%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.84 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing yards x1.13): Vegas total 48.5, implied 27.5 points for DET (league avg 22.5); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected rushing yards this week: 93.30. That makes the chance of 70+ rushing yds 60%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 93.30, spread by about 56.0 yards per game, then the chance of reaching 70+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	Car	RuYd
1	TEN	10	47
2	GB	18	63
Jets avg / game		14.00	55.00
League avg		22.08	90.92

Totals are for every RB the Jets faced in each game, not just one player.