Ashton Jeanty

RB Las Vegas Raiders · Wk 3 @ NO

Chance of 70+ rushing yds

56%

Rank

of 52

Why Jeanty ranks #5

Ashton Jeanty has reached 70+ rushing yds in 1 of 2 games this season.
Jeanty has 150 rushing yards in 2 games (75.00 per game) on 22.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (90.59 per game), giving 82.79 per game.
The Saints have allowed 118.50 rushing yards per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 90.92 (+30%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.12 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing yards x0.95): Vegas total 43.5, implied 20.3 points for LV (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected rushing yards this week: 87.95. That makes the chance of 70+ rushing yds 56%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 87.95, spread by about 52.8 yards per game, then the chance of reaching 70+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	Car	RuYd
1	DET	31	163
2	BAL	18	74
Saints avg / game		24.50	118.50
League avg		22.08	90.92

Totals are for every RB the Saints faced in each game, not just one player.