Kyle Monangai

RB Chicago Bears · Wk 3 vs PHI PHI

Chance of 70+ rushing yds

31%

Rank

#15

of 52

Why Monangai ranks #15

Kyle Monangai has reached 70+ rushing yds in 1 of 2 games this season.
Monangai has 147 rushing yards in 2 games (73.50 per game) on 10.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (41.18 per game), giving 57.34 per game.
The Eagles have allowed 108.00 rushing yards per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 90.92 (+19%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.08 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing yards x0.95): Vegas total 44.5, implied 20.5 points for CHI (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 3.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (66F, 6 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected rushing yards this week: 58.55. That makes the chance of 70+ rushing yds 31%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 58.55, spread by about 35.1 yards per game, then the chance of reaching 70+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	Car	RuYd
1	WAS	27	101
2	TEN	25	115
Eagles avg / game		26.00	108.00
League avg		22.08	90.92

Totals are for every RB the Eagles faced in each game, not just one player.