Omarion Hampton

RB Los Angeles Chargers · Wk 3 @ BUF BUF

Chance of 70+ rushing yds

38%

Rank

#11

of 52

Why Hampton ranks #11

Omarion Hampton has reached 70+ rushing yds in 1 of 2 games this season.
Hampton has 137 rushing yards in 2 games (68.50 per game) on 17.5 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (72.06 per game), giving 70.28 per game.
The Bills have allowed 80.50 rushing yards per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 90.92 (-11%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.95 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing yards x0.96): Vegas total 50.5, implied 21.8 points for LAC (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 7: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (73F, 3 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected rushing yards this week: 65.84. That makes the chance of 70+ rushing yds 38%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 65.84, spread by about 39.5 yards per game, then the chance of reaching 70+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	Car	RuYd
1	HOU	29	102
2	DET	17	59
Bills avg / game		23.00	80.50
League avg		22.08	90.92

Totals are for every RB the Bills faced in each game, not just one player.