Bhayshul Tuten

RB Jacksonville Jaguars · Wk 3 vs NE

Chance of 70+ rushing yds

35%

Rank

#12

of 52

Why Tuten ranks #12

Bhayshul Tuten has reached 70+ rushing yds in 0 of 2 games this season.
Tuten has 131 rushing yards in 2 games (65.50 per game) on 14.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (57.65 per game), giving 61.57 per game.
The Patriots have allowed 82.50 rushing yards per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 90.92 (-9%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.96 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing yards x1.05): Vegas total 45.5, implied 24.3 points for JAX (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (86F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected rushing yards this week: 62.90. That makes the chance of 70+ rushing yds 35%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 62.90, spread by about 37.7 yards per game, then the chance of reaching 70+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	Car	RuYd
1	SEA	20	84
2	PIT	20	81
Patriots avg / game		20.00	82.50
League avg		22.08	90.92

Totals are for every RB the Patriots faced in each game, not just one player.