Ks vs Atlanta Falcons
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Chris Boswell | 2 | 3 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 9.0 |
| Average | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 43.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | ||
| Median | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 43.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | ||
| High | 2 | 3 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 9.0 | ||
| Low | 2 | 3 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 9.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
Prediction & chance to scoreRyan Fitzgerald vs the Falcons
Prediction for Ryan Fitzgerald
Nobody knows which slot Ryan Fitzgerald will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 7.1 points for Ryan Fitzgerald if playing as a K1. Ryan Fitzgerald has averaged 8.0 over 1 game, and the Falcons have given up 9.0 to K1s (+6% vs the league average of 8.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ryan Fitzgerald scored: Wk 1 8.0. Average 8.0; weighted toward recent games it is 7.0.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Falcons allowed 9.0 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.5, so that is +6%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +2% adjustment (x1.02).
4. Result. 7.0 x 1.02 = 7.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ryan Fitzgerald is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.3 points, leaning on Ryan Fitzgerald's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- K1s have averaged 2.0 field goals made, 3.0 field goal attempts and 2.0 extra points against the Falcons across 1 game.
- The Falcons allow 9.0 PPR points to K1s, +6% versus the league average of 8.5 (ranked 13 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Start / Sit · Ryan FitzgeraldMedium confidence · 8.2 proj ptsFlex
- Ryan Fitzgerald averages 9.0 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 9.1) and has played as the team's K1.
- The Falcons have allowed 9.5 points to K1s over 2 games (+12% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +5% adjustment.
- Last season's average (6.5) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 8.2 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level K scores about 9.5 and a top-tier one about 14.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Ryan Fitzgerald's stats vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ryan Fitzgerald has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ryan Fitzgerald will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ryan Fitzgerald's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ryan Fitzgerald usually produces.
Projected is Ryan Fitzgerald's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 4 | 8.0 |
| 2 | ATL | 2 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 4 | 10.0 |
| Fitzgerald avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 40.5 | 4.0 | 9.0 | |
| Falcons K1 avg | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 43.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | |
| Difference | +0.5 | +1.5 | +0.5 | +2.5 | -2.0 | +0.0 | |
| Projected as K1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 41.1 | 4.1 | 7.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Fitzgerald averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.