Ks vs New Orleans Saints
As of Week 3 · through 2 games · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Jake Bates | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 4 | 7.0 |
| 2 |  BAL | Tyler Loop | 1 | 2 | 1 | 49 | 2 | 6.0 |
| Average | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 36.0 | 3.0 | 6.5 | ||
| Median | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 36.0 | 3.0 | 6.5 | ||
| High | 1 | 2 | 1 | 49 | 4 | 7.0 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 6.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
Prediction for Matt Gay
Nobody knows which slot Matt Gay will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 7.4 points for Matt Gay if playing as a K1. Matt Gay has averaged 9.0 over 2 games, and the Saints have given up 6.5 to K1s (-23% vs the league average of 8.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Matt Gay scored: Wk 1 10.0, Wk 2 8.0. Average 9.0; weighted toward recent games it is 8.2.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Saints allowed 6.5 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.5, so that is -23%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -9% adjustment (x0.91).
4. Result. 8.2 x 0.91 = 7.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Matt Gay is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.5 points, leaning on Matt Gay's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- K1s have averaged 1.0 field goals made, 1.5 field goal attempts and 3.0 extra points against the Saints across 2 games.
- The Saints allow 6.5 PPR points to K1s, -23% versus the league average of 8.5 (ranked 23 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 8+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.0 to 7.0 (median 6.5).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Matt Gay averages 9.0 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 8.9) and has played as the team's K1.
- The Saints have allowed 6.5 points to K1s over 2 games (-23% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -9% adjustment.
- Last season's average (7.5) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +1%: Vegas total 43.5, implied 20.3 points for LV (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Projection: 7.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level K scores about 9.5 and a top-tier one about 14.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Matt Gay's stats vs the Saints
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Matt Gay has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Matt Gay will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Matt Gay's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Matt Gay usually produces.
Projected is Matt Gay's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 2 | 2 | 1 | 47 | 3 | 10.0 |
| 2 | LAC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 3 | 8.0 |
| Gay avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 53.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | |
| Saints K1 avg | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 36.0 | 3.0 | 6.5 | |
| Difference | -0.5 | +0.0 | -0.5 | -17.0 | +0.0 | -2.5 | |
| Projected as K1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 48.1 | 2.7 | 7.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Gay averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.