QBs vs Buffalo Bills
As of Week 12 · through 2 games · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | C.J. Stroud | 26 | 38 | 274 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 16.5 |
| 2 |  DET | Jared Goff | 26 | 38 | 327 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 29.8 |
| Average | 26.0 | 38.0 | 300.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 23.1 | ||
| Median | 26.0 | 38.0 | 300.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 23.1 | ||
| High | 26 | 38 | 327 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 29.8 | ||
| Low | 26 | 38 | 274 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 16.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Patrick Mahomes
Nobody knows which slot Patrick Mahomes will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 26.5 points for Patrick Mahomes if playing as a QB1. Patrick Mahomes has averaged 25.3 over 2 games, and the Bills have given up 23.1 to QB1s (+37% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Patrick Mahomes scored: Wk 1 21.7, Wk 2 29.0. Average 25.3; weighted toward recent games it is 23.1.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Bills allowed 23.1 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is +37%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +15% adjustment (x1.15).
4. Result. 23.1 x 1.15 = 26.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Patrick Mahomes is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (26.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 15.9 points, leaning on Patrick Mahomes's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 26.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- QB1s have averaged 300.5 passing yards, 3.0 passing TDs and 11.0 rushing yards against the Bills across 2 games.
- The Bills allow 23.1 PPR points to QB1s, +37% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 16.5 to 29.8 (median 23.1).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 250 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Patrick Mahomes averages 25.3 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 25.7) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Bills have allowed 23.1 points to QB1s over 2 games (+37% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +15% adjustment.
- Last season's average (20.4) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 26.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Patrick Mahomes's stats vs the Bills
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Patrick Mahomes has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Patrick Mahomes will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Patrick Mahomes's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Patrick Mahomes usually produces.
Projected is Patrick Mahomes's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 15 | 27 | 184 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 21.7 |
| 2 | IND | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 29.0 |
| Mahomes avg | 23.5 | 37.0 | 283.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 20.0 | 0.5 | 25.3 | |
| Bills QB1 avg | 26.0 | 38.0 | 300.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 23.1 | |
| Difference | +2.5 | +1.0 | +17.5 | +0.5 | -0.5 | -2.0 | -9.0 | -0.5 | -2.2 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 27.0 | 42.5 | 324.7 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 22.9 | 0.6 | 26.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mahomes averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.