QBs vs Chicago Bears
As of Week 9 · through 2 games · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | Bryce Young | 23 | 37 | 361 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 31.4 |
| 2 |  MIN | Carson Wentz | 11 | 20 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 6.3 |
| Average | 17.0 | 28.5 | 252.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 18.9 | ||
| Median | 17.0 | 28.5 | 252.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 18.9 | ||
| High | 23 | 37 | 361 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 31.4 | ||
| Low | 11 | 20 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Baker Mayfield should do vs the BearsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bears, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Baker Mayfield has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bears opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Baker Mayfield will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bears avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Baker Mayfield's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Baker Mayfield usually produces.
Projected is Baker Mayfield's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bears were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 23 | 28 | 216 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 11.6 |
| 2 | CLE | 21 | 34 | 182 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 12.2 |
| Mayfield avg | 22.0 | 31.0 | 199.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 29.5 | 0.5 | 11.9 | |
| Bears QB1 avg | 17.0 | 28.5 | 252.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 18.9 | |
| Difference | -5.0 | -2.5 | +53.0 | +1.0 | +0.0 | -2.0 | -21.5 | +0.0 | +7.0 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 23.0 | 32.5 | 208.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 30.9 | 0.5 | 14.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mayfield averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Baker MayfieldMedium confidence · 14.6 proj ptsFlex
- Baker Mayfield averages 11.9 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 11.9) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Bears have allowed 18.9 points to QB1s over 2 games (+12% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +5% adjustment.
- Last season's average (16.0) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 14.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBaker Mayfield vs the Bears
Prediction for Baker Mayfield
Nobody knows which slot Baker Mayfield will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bears.
I predict about 14.6 points for Baker Mayfield if playing as a QB1. Baker Mayfield has averaged 11.9 over 2 games, and the Bears have given up 18.9 to QB1s (+12% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Baker Mayfield scored: Wk 1 11.6, Wk 2 12.2. Average 11.9; weighted toward recent games it is 14.0.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Bears allowed 18.9 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is +12%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +5% adjustment (x1.05).
4. Result. 14.0 x 1.05 = 14.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Baker Mayfield is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.8 points, leaning on Baker Mayfield's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 15.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 252.0 passing yards, 1.5 passing TDs and 8.0 rushing yards against the Bears across 2 games.
- The Bears allow 18.9 PPR points to QB1s, +12% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 10 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.3 to 31.4 (median 18.9).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 120 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.