QBs vs Houston Texans
As of Week 12 · through 2 games · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | Josh Allen | 20 | 29 | 334 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 35.7 |
| 2 |  CIN | Joe Burrow | 20 | 31 | 207 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16.2 |
| Average | 20.0 | 30.0 | 270.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 25.9 | ||
| Median | 20.0 | 30.0 | 270.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 25.9 | ||
| High | 20 | 31 | 334 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 35.7 | ||
| Low | 20 | 29 | 207 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Lamar Jackson
Nobody knows which slot Lamar Jackson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Texans.
I predict about 21.8 points for Lamar Jackson if playing as a QB1. Lamar Jackson has averaged 19.9 over 2 games, and the Texans have given up 25.9 to QB1s (+53% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Lamar Jackson scored: Wk 1 25.0, Wk 2 14.8. Average 19.9; weighted toward recent games it is 17.9.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Texans allowed 25.9 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is +53%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +21% adjustment (x1.21).
4. Result. 17.9 x 1.21 = 21.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Lamar Jackson is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (21.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 13.1 points, leaning on Lamar Jackson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 22.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- QB1s have averaged 270.5 passing yards, 2.0 passing TDs and 11.0 rushing yards against the Texans across 2 games.
- The Texans allow 25.9 PPR points to QB1s, +53% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 16.2 to 35.7 (median 25.9).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 200 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Lamar Jackson averages 19.9 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 19.3) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Texans have allowed 25.9 points to QB1s over 2 games (+53% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +21% adjustment.
- Last season's average (16.5) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 21.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Lamar Jackson's stats vs the Texans
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Texans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Lamar Jackson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Texans opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Lamar Jackson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Texans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Lamar Jackson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Lamar Jackson usually produces.
Projected is Lamar Jackson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Texans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 17 | 25 | 324 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 25.0 |
| 2 | NO | 21 | 31 | 235 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 14.8 |
| Jackson avg | 19.0 | 28.0 | 279.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 37.0 | 0.5 | 19.9 | |
| Texans QB1 avg | 20.0 | 30.0 | 270.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 25.9 | |
| Difference | +1.0 | +2.0 | -9.0 | +1.0 | -0.5 | -2.0 | -26.0 | +0.5 | +6.0 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 23.1 | 34.0 | 339.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 6.7 | 44.9 | 0.6 | 21.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jackson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.