QBs vs Indianapolis Colts
As of Week 16 · through 2 games · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Lamar Jackson | 17 | 25 | 324 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 25.0 |
| 2 |  KC | Patrick Mahomes | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 29.0 |
| Average | 24.5 | 36.0 | 353.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 28.5 | 0.5 | 27.0 | ||
| Median | 24.5 | 36.0 | 353.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 28.5 | 0.5 | 27.0 | ||
| High | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 29.0 | ||
| Low | 17 | 25 | 324 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 25.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Joe Burrow should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Joe Burrow has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Joe Burrow will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Joe Burrow's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Joe Burrow usually produces.
Projected is Joe Burrow's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 25 | 35 | 254 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 2 | HOU | 20 | 31 | 207 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16.2 |
| Burrow avg | 22.5 | 33.0 | 230.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 15.2 | |
| Colts QB1 avg | 24.5 | 36.0 | 353.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 28.5 | 0.5 | 27.0 | |
| Difference | +2.0 | +3.0 | +122.5 | +0.5 | -0.5 | +1.5 | +19.0 | +0.5 | +11.8 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 27.9 | 40.9 | 285.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 11.8 | 0.0 | 19.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Burrow averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Joe BurrowMedium confidence · 19.9 proj ptsStart
- Joe Burrow averages 15.2 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 15.3) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Colts have allowed 27.0 points to QB1s over 2 games (+60% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +24% adjustment.
- Last season's average (16.8) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 19.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJoe Burrow vs the Colts
Prediction for Joe Burrow
Nobody knows which slot Joe Burrow will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 19.9 points for Joe Burrow if playing as a QB1. Joe Burrow has averaged 15.2 over 2 games, and the Colts have given up 27.0 to QB1s (+60% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Joe Burrow scored: Wk 1 14.2, Wk 2 16.2. Average 15.2; weighted toward recent games it is 16.0.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Colts allowed 27.0 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is +60%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +24% adjustment (x1.24).
4. Result. 16.0 x 1.24 = 19.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Joe Burrow is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (19.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.9 points, leaning on Joe Burrow's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 20.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 353.0 passing yards, 2.0 passing TDs and 28.5 rushing yards against the Colts across 2 games.
- The Colts allow 27.0 PPR points to QB1s, +60% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 25.0 to 29.0 (median 27.0).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 300 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.